Reflections on the recent tour of President Medvedev

The first interview in a series regarding Latin America in Geopolitics.

An interview with Michael T. Klare, author of Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy (Henry Holt & Company, 2008), Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America’s Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2004; paperback, Owl Books, 2005) and Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict (New York: Owl Books, reprint edition 2002). Michael was interviewed for Gurusonline.tv several times. The first interview was for a review of Resource Wars.

Interview by Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues, Dec. 2008

Klare: «I don’t think that Russia will be able to sustain any major military or diplomatic initiatives in Latin America for the time being, and Venezuela will lack the funds for any more major arms purchases.»

Q: How you evaluate in terms of geo-strategy the recent Medvedev tour in Latin America?

MK: Well, this was meant to be the beginning of a new Russian effort to establish a diplomatic beach-head in Latin America and challenge U.S. dominance there, but I don’t get the impression that it was that much of a success. His major visit was to Caracas, where he signed a number of agreements with Hugo Chavez, but Chavez is seen as being in a bit of decline right now and the agreements are considered of dubious viability, so I wouldn’t call this a great success. The big problem is that both Russia and Venezuela are suffering from diminished state revenues due to the fall in oil prices, and this reduces their political clout. So I don’t think that Russia will be able to sustain any major military or diplomatic initiatives in Latin America for the time being, and Venezuela will lack the funds for any more major arms purchases.

Q: Do you think there are differences between Russia and China’s strategies regarding Latin America? One more «hard» around military technology sells and geopolitical fast positioning, and the other more «soft» around commodities so far and more long-range?

MK: Yes, I agree that Russia and China are playing a different game in Latin America. The Russians are mainly seeking political partners at this time, and perhaps customers for their arms (they don’t have much else to offer). And they don’t need to buy much from Latin America, as they are self-sufficient in most energy and mineral products. The Chinese are not seeking geopolitical immediate gains in Latin America – they come to buy raw materials and sell manufactured goods. Latin America is a major trading partner for them. So their focus is on big trading states – Brazil and Peru, in particular.

Klare: «Neither China nor Russia has the capacity to challenge the United States in Latin America. Russia may have the inclination to do so, as suggested by Medvedev’s visit, but he lacks the capacity to sustain this effort.»

Q: Do you think Latin America is returning to a «shatterbelt» situation with growing risks of resource wars and cold war between great powers?

MK: In the short term, no, I do not see Latin America become a site of Cold War-like contestation between the great powers. Neither China nor Russia has the capacity to challenge the United States in Latin America. Russia may have the inclination to do so, as suggested by Medvedev’s visit, but he lacks the capacity to sustain this effort. China, I think, has decided that Latin America is in America’s sphere of influence and therefore it is too risky to challenge the United States in this area. Africa is different: China feels it has an opportunity to challenge the West there and is doing so. But not in Latin America – here, China will contain its initiatives to the diplomatic and commercial realm.

Q: Do you see any particular role for Brazil in this affair?

MK: Yes. Brazil is emerging as a “great power” in its own right, and as a counter-balance to the United States, Russia, and China in South America. The fact that China has strong economic ties with Brazil and Russia has much fewer ties with Brazil gives Beijing an advantage in this competition.

Q: Do you think with President Obama the situation will change after January?

MK: I think that Obama will pay more attention to Latin America than Bush did. This will not be hard – Bush paid very little attention to Latin America, so any increase by Obama will be significant. But this will not happen right away. Obama, I suspect, will focus first on Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan in his foreign policy, and only later on Africa and Latin America.